Key Factors That Impact Affordability Today

You can’t read an article about residential real estate without the author mentioning the affordability challenges that today’s buyers face. There’s no doubt homes are less affordable today than they were over the last two years, but that doesn’t mean homes are now unaffordable. There are three measures used to establish home affordability: home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. Let’s look closely at each of these components. 1. Home Prices The most recent Home Price Insights report by CoreLogic shows home values have increased by 19.1% from last January to this January. That was one reason affordability declined over the past year. 2. Mortgage Rates While the current global uncertainty makes it difficult to project mortgage rates, we do know current rates are almost one full percentage point higher than they were last year. According to Freddie Mac, the average monthly rate for last February was 2.81%. This February it was 3.76%. That increase in the mortgage rate also contributes to homes being less affordable than they were last year. 3. Wages The one big, positive component in the affordability equation is an increase in American wages. In a recent article by RealtyTrac, Peter Miller addresses that point: “Prices are up, but what about wages? ADP reports that job holder incomes increased 5.9% last year but rose 8.0% for those who switched employers. In effect, some of the higher cost to buy a home has been offset by more cash income.” The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also recently released information that looks at income and affordability. The NAR data provides a comparison of the current median family income versus the qualifying income for a median-priced home in each region of the country. Here’s a graph of their findings: Key Factors That Impact Affordability Today | MyKCM As the graph shows, the median family income (shown in blue on the graph) is greater than the qualifying income needed to buy a median-priced home (shown in green on the graph) in all four regions of the country. While those figures may vary in certain locations within each region, it’s important to note that, in most of the country, homes are still affordable. So, when you think about affordability, remember that the picture includes more than just home prices and mortgage rates. When prices rise and rates rise, it does impact affordability, and experts project both of those things will climb in the months ahead. That’s why it’s less affordable to buy a home than it was over the past two years when prices and rates were lower than they are today. But wages need to be factored into affordability as well. Because wages have been rising, they’re a big reason that, while less affordable, homes are not unaffordable today.

How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ll want to keep a pulse on what’s happening with mortgage rates. Rates have been climbing in recent months, especially since January of this year. And just a few weeks ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac approached 4% for the first time since May of 2019. But that climb has dropped slightly over the past few weeks (see graph below): How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates | MyKCM The recent decline in mortgage rates is primarily due to growing uncertainty around geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine. But experts say it’s to be expected. Here’s a look at how industry leaders are explaining the impact global uncertainty has on mortgage rates: Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “While mortgage rates trended upward in 2022, one unintended side effect of global uncertainty is that it often results in downward pressure on mortgage rates.” In another interview, Kushi adds: “Geopolitical events play an important role in impacting the long end of the yield curve and mortgage rates. For example, in the weeks following the ‘Brexit’ vote in 2016, the U.S. Treasury bond yield declined and led to a corresponding decline in mortgage rates.” Kushi’s insights are a reminder that, historically, economic uncertainty can impact the 10-year treasury yield – which has a long-standing relationship with mortgage rates and is often considered a leading indicator of where rates are headed. Basically, events overseas can have an impact on mortgage rates here, and that’s what we’re seeing today. Will Mortgage Rates Stay Down? While no one has a crystal ball to predict exactly what will happen with rates in the future, experts agree this slight decline is temporary. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, echoes Kushi’s sentiment, but adds that the decline in rates won’t last: “Geopolitical tensions caused U.S. Treasury yields to recede this week . . . leading to a drop in mortgage rates. While inflationary pressures remain, the cascading impacts of the war in Ukraine have created market uncertainty. Consequently, rates are expected to stay low in the short-term but will likely increase in the coming months.” Rates will likely fluctuate in the short-term based on what’s happening globally. But before long, experts project rates will renew their climb. If you’re in the market to buy a home, doing so before rates start to rise again may be your most affordable option.

Why It’s Critical To Price Your House Right

When you make a move, you want to sell your house for the highest price possible. That might be why many homeowners are eager to list in today’s sellers’ market. After all, with record-low inventory and high buyer demand, many homes are selling for more than asking price. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 46% of homes are selling above list price today. But even in a market like we have now, working with an agent to set the right asking price is critical, as pricing it too high or too low could have a negative impact on your final sale. Here’s why. Pricing Your House Right Is Crucial Even in a Sellers’ Market The price you set for your house sends a message to potential buyers. Price it too low and you might raise questions about your home’s condition or lead buyers to assume something is wrong with the property. Not to mention, you could leave money on the table, which decreases your future buying power if you undervalue your house. On the other hand, price it too high and you run the risk of deterring buyers. When that happens, you may have to do a price drop to try to re-ignite interest in your house when it sits on the market for a while. But be aware that a price drop can be seen as a red flag for some buyers who will wonder why the price was reduced and what that means about the home. In other words, think of pricing your home as a target. Your goal is to aim directly for the center – not too high, not too low, but right at market value. Pricing your house fairly based on market conditions increases the chance you’ll have more buyers who are interested in purchasing it. That makes it more likely you’ll see a bidding war, too. And when a bidding war happens, you’ll likely get an even higher final sale price. Plus, when homes are priced right, they tend to sell quickly. To get a look into the potential downsides of over or underpricing your house and the perks that come with pricing it at market value, see the chart below: Why It’s Critical To Price Your House Right | MyKCM Lean on a Professional’s Expertise To Price Your House Right There are several factors that go into pricing your house and balancing them is the key. That’s why it’s important to lean on an expert real estate advisor when you’re ready to move. A local real estate advisor is knowledgeable about: The value of homes in your neighborhood The current demand for houses in today’s market The condition of your house and how it affects the value A real estate professional will balance these factors to make sure the price of your house makes the best first impression and gives you the greatest return on your investment in the end.

Supply and Demand in Today’s Market

Today’s housing market is the direct result of low supply and high buyer demand. Here’s what that means for you and your plans to buy or sell. For buyers, expect competition, be ready to move fast, and be prepared to submit your strongest offer. For sellers, know your house will be the center of attention and that it’ll likely sell quickly and get multiple offers. If you’re ready to move, let’s connect to talk about our local area and how you can take advantage of today’s unprecedented housing market.

Are Home Prices Continuing To Rise?

Many analysts projected home price appreciation would slow dramatically in the fall of 2021 and then continue to soften throughout 2022. So far, that hasn’t happened. The major price indices are all revealing ongoing double-digit price appreciation. Here’s a look at their reports on year-over-year price appreciation for December: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): 17.6% S&P Case-Shiller: 18.8% CoreLogic: 18.5% To show that they’re not seeing signs of softening, here’s a graph that gives the progression of all three indices for each month of 2021. Are Home Prices Continuing To Rise? | MyKCM As the graph above reveals, last year, home price appreciation accelerated dramatically from January to July according to all three indices. Then, it began to decelerate in August when prices appreciated at a slower pace, but it didn’t decline. Many thought that would be the beginning of a rapid slowdown in the level of home price appreciation, but as the data shows, that wasn’t the case. Instead, prices began to level off for a few months before two of the three indices saw appreciation re-accelerate again in December. To clarify, deceleration is not the same as depreciation. Acceleration means prices rise at a greater year-over-year pace than the previous month. Deceleration means home values continue to rise but at a slower pace of year-over-year appreciation. Depreciation means prices drop below current values. No one is forecasting that to happen. In fact, the FHFA revealed that price appreciation accelerated in December in six of the nine regions it tracks. Case Shiller showed that appreciation accelerated in 15 of the 20 metros they report on. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains: “After some signs of slowing home price growth . . . monthly price growth re-accelerated again, indicating home buyers have not yet thrown in the towel.” What Does This Mean for You? Whether you’re a first-time purchaser or someone looking to sell your current house and buy a home that better fits your needs, waiting to decide what to do will cost you in two ways: Mortgage rates are forecast to rise this year. Home prices should continue to appreciate at double-digit levels for some time. If you wait, rising mortgage rates and high home price appreciation will have a dramatic impact on your monthly mortgage payment.

Down Payment Assistance Programs Can Help You Achieve Homeownership

For many homebuyers, the thought of saving for a down payment can feel daunting, especially in today’s market. That’s why, when asked what they find most difficult in the homebuying process, some buyers say it’s one of the hardest steps on the path to homeownership. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows: “For first-time home buyers, 29 percent said saving for a downpayment [sic] was the most difficult step in the process.” If you’re finding that your down payment is your biggest hurdle, the good news is there are many down payment assistance programs available that can help you achieve your goals. The key is understanding where to look and learning what options are available. Here’s some information that can help.

First-Time and Repeat Buyers Are Often Eligible According to downpaymentresource.com, there are thousands of financial assistance programs available for homebuyers, like affordable mortgage options for first-time buyers. But, of the many programs that are available, down payment assistance options make up the large majority. They say 73% of the assistance available to homebuyers is there to help you with your down payment. And it’s not just first-time homebuyers that are eligible for these programs. Downpaymentresource.com notes: “You don’t have to be a first-time buyer. Over 38% of all programs are for repeat homebuyers who have owned a home in the last 3 years.” That means no matter where you are in your homeownership journey, there could be an option available for you. There Are Local Programs and Specialized Programs for Public Servants There are also multiple down payment assistance resources designed to help those who serve our communities. Teacher Next Door is one of those programs: “The Teacher Next Door Program was designed to increase home ownership among teachers and other public servants, support community development and increase access to affordable housing free from discrimination.” Teacher Next Door is just one program that seeks to help teachers, first responders, health providers, government employees, active-duty military personnel, and veterans reach their down payment goals. And, most importantly, even if you don’t qualify for these types of specialized programs, there are many federal, state, and local programs available for you to explore. And the best way to do that is to connect with a local real estate professional to learn more about what’s available in your area.

An Expert Advisor Will Give You the Best Advice in Today’s Market

Having an experienced guide coaching you through the process of buying or selling a home is important in a normal market – but today’s market is far from normal. As a result, an expert real estate advisor isn’t just good to have by your side, they’re essential. Today’s housing market is full of extremes. Experts project mortgage rates will continue to rise this year, and that’s driving significant demand for homes as buyers want to make their purchases before rates climb even higher. At the same time, an absence of sellers is leading to record-low housing inventory. This imbalance in supply and demand is creating bidding wars and driving home price appreciation as well as considerable gains in home equity. These market conditions can feel overwhelming, but you don’t have to go at it alone. Having a trusted expert to coach you through the process of buying or selling a home gives you clarity and confidence through each step. Here are just a few of the ways a real estate expert is invaluable: Contracts – Agents help with the disclosures and contracts necessary in today’s heavily regulated environment. Experience – In an unprecedented market, experience is crucial. Real estate professionals know the entire sales process, including how it’s changed over the past two years. Negotiations – Your real estate advisor acts as a buffer in negotiations with all parties throughout the entire transaction and advocates for your best interests. Education – Knowledge is power in today’s market, and your advisor will simply and effectively explain market conditions and translate what they mean for you. Pricing – Finally, a real estate professional understands today’s real estate values when setting the price of your home or helping you make an offer to purchase one. A real estate agent is a crucial guide through this unprecedented market, but not all agents are created equal. A true expert can carefully walk you through the whole real estate process, look out for your unique needs, and advise you on the best ways to achieve success. Finding an expert real estate advisor – not just any agent – should be your top priority when you’re ready to buy or sell a home. What’s the key to choosing the right expert? It starts with trust. You’ll want to know you can trust the advice they’re giving you, so you need to make sure you’re connected with a true professional. No one can provide perfect advice because it’s impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen at every turn – especially in today’s unique market. But a true professional can give you the best possible advice based on the information and situation at hand. They’ll help you make the necessary adjustments along the way, advocate for you throughout the process, and coach you on the essential knowledge you need to make confident decisions. That’s exactly what you want and deserve.