What To Expect From the Housing Market in 2023

The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it's put the market into a reset position. As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) made moves this year to try to lower inflation, mortgage rates more than doubled – something that’s never happened before in a calendar year. This had a cascading impact on buyer activity, the balance between supply and demand, and ultimately home prices. And as all those things changed, some buyers and sellers put their plans on hold and decided to wait until the market felt a bit more predictable. But what does that mean for next year? What everyone really wants is more stability in the market in 2023. For that to happen we’ll need to see the Fed bring inflation down even more and keep it there. Here’s what housing market experts say we can expect next year. What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates in 2023? Moving forward, experts agree it’s still going to be all about inflation. If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be as well. But if inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will likely respond. While there may be early signs inflation is easing as we round out this year, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Inflation is still something to watch in 2023. Right now, experts are factoring all of this into their mortgage rate forecasts for next year. And if we average those forecasts together, experts say we can expect rates to stabilize a bit more in 2023. Whether that’s between 5.5% and 6.5%, it’s hard for experts to say exactly where they’ll land. But based on the average of their projections, a more predictable rate is likely ahead (see chart below): That means, we’ll start the year out about where we are right now. But we could see rates tick down if inflation continues to drop. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains: “. . . mortgage rates could pull back meaningfully next year if inflation pressures ease.” In the meantime, expect some volatility as rates will likely fluctuate in the weeks ahead. If we see inflation come back under control, that would be good news for the housing market. What Will Happen to Home Prices Next Year? Homes prices will always be defined by supply and demand. The more buyers and fewer homes there are on the market, the more home prices will rise. And that’s exactly what we saw during the pandemic. But this year, things changed. We’ve seen home prices moderate and housing supply grow as buyer demand pulled back due to higher mortgage rates. The level of moderation has varied by local area – with the biggest changes happening in overheated markets. But do experts think that will continue? The graph below shows the latest home price forecasts for 2023. As the different colored bars indicate, some experts are saying home prices will appreciate next year, and others are saying home prices will come down. But again, if we take the average of all the forecasts (shown in green), we can get a feel for what 2023 may hold. What To Expect from the Housing Market in 2023 | MyKCM The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. That means nationally, we’ll likely see relatively flat or neutral appreciation in 2023. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”

Expert Insights on the 2023 Housing Market

Mortgage Rates Are Dropping. What Does That Mean for You?

Mortgage rates have been a hot topic in the housing market over the past 12 months. Compared to the beginning of 2022, rates have risen dramatically. Now they’re dropping, and that has to do with everything happening in the economy. Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains it well by saying: “Mortgage rates dropped even further this week as two main factors affecting today's mortgage market became more favorable. Inflation continued to ease while the Federal Reserve switched to a smaller interest rate hike. As a result, according to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.31% from 6.33% the previous week.” So, what does that mean for your homeownership plans? As mortgage rates fluctuate, they impact your purchasing power by influencing the cost of buying a home. Even a small dip can help boost your purchasing power. Here’s how it works. The median-priced home according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is $379,100. So, let’s assume you want to buy a $400,000 home. If you’re trying to shop at that price point and keep your monthly payment about $2,500-2,600 or below, here’s how your purchasing power can change as mortgage rates move up or down (see chart below). The red shows payments above that threshold and the green indicates a payment within your target range. This goes to show, even a small quarter-point change in mortgage rates can impact your monthly mortgage payment. That’s why it’s important to work with a trusted real estate professional who follows what the experts are projecting for mortgage rates for the days, months, and year ahead.

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Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market

With the rapid shift that’s happened in the housing market this year, some people are raising concerns that we’re destined for a repeat of the crash we saw in 2008. But in truth, there are many key differences between what’s happening today and the bubble in the early 2000s. One of the reasons this isn’t like the last time is the number of foreclosures in the market is much lower now. Here’s a look at why there won’t be a wave of foreclosures flooding the market. Not as Many Homeowners Are in Trouble This Time After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes due to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. This was, in large part, because of more relaxed lending standards where people could take out mortgages they ultimately couldn’t afford. Those lending practices led to a wave of distressed properties which made their way into the market and caused home values to plummet. But today, revised lending standards have led to more qualified buyers. As a result, there are fewer homeowners who are behind on their mortgages. As Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says: “For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45%. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages.” There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years While you may have seen recent stories about the number of foreclosures rising today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The program gave homeowners facing difficulties extra time to get their finances in order and, in many cases, work out a plan with their lender. With that program, many were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. That fear didn’t materialize. Data from the New York Fed shows there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic (see graph below): Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market | MyKCM That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019. And most importantly, the number we’re seeing now is still far below the number we saw during the market crash (shown in the red bars in the graph). The big takeaway? Don’t let a headline in the news mislead you. While foreclosures are up year-over-year, historical context is essential to understanding the full picture. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes Many homeowners today have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosure. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. And if they’ve stayed in their homes even longer, they may have even more equity than they realize. As Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First American, says: “Homeowners have very high levels of tappable home equity today, providing a cushion to withstand potential price declines, but also preventing housing distress from turning into a foreclosure. . . the result will likely be more of a foreclosure ‘trickle’ than a ‘tsunami.’” A recent report from ATTOM Data explains it by going even deeper into the numbers: “Only about 214,800 homeowners were facing possible foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022, or just four-tenths of one percent of the 58.2 million outstanding mortgages in the U.S. Of those facing foreclosure, about 195,400, or 91 percent, had at least some equity built up in their homes.”

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The Cost of Waiting for Mortgage Rates To Go Down

Mortgage rates have increased significantly in recent weeks. And that may mean you have questions about what this means for you if you’re planning to buy a home. Here’s some information that can help you make an informed decision when you set your homebuying plans.

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates As mortgage rates rise, they impact your purchasing power by raising the cost of buying a home and limiting how much you can comfortably afford. Here’s how it works. Let’s assume you want to buy a $400,000 home (the median-priced home according to the National Association of Realtors is $389,500). If you’re trying to shop at that price point and keep your monthly payment about $2,500-2,600 or below, here’s how your purchasing power can change as mortgage rates climb (see chart below). The red shows payments above that threshold and the green indicates a payment within your target range. As the chart shows, as rates go up, the amount you can afford to borrow decreases and that may mean you have to look at homes at a different price point. That’s why it’s important to work with a real estate advisor to understand how mortgage rates impact your monthly mortgage payment at various home loan amounts. Are Mortgage Rates Going To Go Down? The rise in mortgage rates and the resulting decrease in purchasing power may leave you wondering if you should wait for rates to go down before making your purchase. Realtor.com says this about where rates could go from here: “Many homebuyers likely winced . . . upon hearing that the Federal Reserve yet again boosted its short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point—a move that’s pushing mortgage rates through the roof. And the already high rates are just going to get higher.” So, if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to drop, you may be waiting for a while as the Federal Reserve works to get inflation under control. And if you’re considering renting as your alternative while you wait it out, remember that’s going to get more expensive with time too. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “There is no doubt that these higher rates hurt housing affordability. Nevertheless, apart from borrowing costs, rents additionally rose at their highest pace in nearly four decades.” Basically, it is true that it costs more to buy a home today than it did last year, but the same is true for renting. This means, either way, you’re going to be paying more. The difference is, with homeownership, you’re also gaining equity over time which will help grow your net worth. The question now becomes: what makes more sense for you?

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How an Expert Can Help You Understand Inflation & Mortgage Rates

If you’re following today’s housing market, you know two of the top issues consumers face are inflation and mortgage rates. Let’s take a look at each one. Inflation and the Housing Market This year, inflation reached a high not seen in forty years. For the average consumer, you probably felt the pinch at the gas pump and in the grocery store. It may have even impacted your ability to save money to buy a home. While the Federal Reserve is working hard to lower inflation, the August data shows the inflation rate was still higher than expected. This news impacted the stock market and fueled conversations about a recession. It also played a role in the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the Federal Funds Rate last week. As Bankrate says: “. . . the Fed has raised rates again, announcing yet another three-quarter-point hike on September 21 . . . The hikes are designed to cool an economy that has been on fire. . .” While their actions don’t directly dictate what happens with mortgage rates, their decisions have contributed to the intentional cooldown in the housing market. A recent article from Fortune explains: “As the Federal Reserve moved into inflation-fighting mode, financial markets quickly put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Those elevated mortgage rates . . . coupled with sky-high home prices, threw cold water onto the housing boom.” The Impact on Rising Mortgage Rates Over the past few months, mortgage rates have fluctuated in light of growing economic pressures. Most recently, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate according to Freddie Mac ticked above 6% for the first time in well over a decade (see graph below): How an Expert Can Help You Understand Inflation & Mortgage Rates | MyKCM The mortgage rate increases this year are the big reason buyer demand has pulled back in recent months. Basically, as rates (and home prices) rose, so did the cost of buying a home. That pushed on affordability and priced some buyers out of the market, so home sales slowed and the inventory of homes for sale grew as a result. Where Experts Say Rates and Inflation Will Go from Here Moving forward, both of these factors will continue to impact the housing market. A recent article from CNET puts the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates in simple terms: “As a general rule, when inflation is low, mortgage rates tend to be lower. When inflation is high, rates tend to be higher.” Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, has this to say about where rates may go from here: “Mortgage rates remained volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and a clear slowdown in economic growth. The high uncertainty surrounding inflation and other factors will likely cause rates to remain variable, . . .” While there’s no way to say with certainty where mortgage rates will go from here, there is something you can do to stay informed, and that’s connect with a trusted real estate advisor. They keep their pulse on what’s happening today and help you understand what the experts are projecting. They can provide you with the best advice possible. Bottom Line Rising inflation and higher mortgage rates have had a clear impact on housing. For expert insights on the latest trends in the housing market and what they mean for you, let’s connect.

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Heres What Housing Experts Forecast for the Rest of 2022

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market?

If you’re wondering what a potential recession could mean for the housing market, here’s what history tells us. In four of the last six recessions, home prices actually appreciated, only falling during the early 90s and the housing crash in 2008. Mortgage rates, though, declined during each of the previous recessions. If you have questions about buying or selling a home in today’s market, let’s connect.

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3 Tips for Buying a Home Today

If you put off your home search at any point over the past two years, you may want to consider picking it back up based on today’s housing market conditions. Recent data shows the supply of homes for sale is increasing, giving buyers like you additional options. But it’s important to keep in mind that while inventory is improving, it’s still a sellers’ market. And that means you need to be prepared as you set out on your home search. Here are three tips for buying the home of your dreams today. 1. Understand How Mortgage Rates Impact Your Homebuying Power Mortgage rates have increased significantly this year, and over the past few weeks, they’ve been fluctuating quite a bit. It’s important to stay up to date on what’s happening with rates and understand how they can impact your purchasing power when you’re thinking of buying a home. The chart below can help. Let’s say your budget allows for a monthly mortgage payment in the $2,100-$2,200 range. The green in the chart indicates a payment within or below that range, while the red is a payment that exceeds it. 3 Tips for Buying a Home Today | MyKCM As the chart shows, even a small change in mortgage rates can have a big impact on your monthly payments. If rates rise, you could exceed your budget unless you pursue a lower home loan amount. If rates fall, your purchasing power may increase, which could give you additional options for your search. 2. Be Open to Exploring Different Options During Your Search The supply of homes for sale is improving, which gives you more homes to choose from. But historically, supply is still low. That means as you search for homes, if you still don’t find something that meets your needs, it may be worth expanding your search. A recent article from the Washington Post highlights a few things buyers can consider today. It encourages opening yourself up to more areas. For example, if there’s a location you’ve previously ruled out (like a particular town, for example) it may be worth taking another look. And if you’re able to, opening your search up to include other housing types, like newly built homes, condominiums, or townhomes can further increase your pool of options. Even as the inventory of homes for sale improves today, finding ways to cast a wider net during your search could help you find a hidden gem. 3. Work with a Local Real Estate Professional for Expert Guidance Ultimately, you need to be prepared when you set out to buy a home. Jeff Ostrowski, Senior Mortgage Reporter for Bankrate, explains: “Taking the leap to homeownership can provide a feeling of pride while boosting your long-term financial outlook, if you go in well-prepared and with your eyes open.” No matter where you’re at in your homeownership journey, the best way to make sure you’re set up for success is to work with a real estate professional. If you’re just starting your search, a real estate professional can help you understand your local market and search for available homes. And when it’s time to make an offer, they’ll be an expert advisor and negotiator to help yours stand out above the rest.

Is the Shifting Market a Challenge or an Opportunity for Homebuyers?

If you tried to buy a home during the pandemic, you know the limited supply of homes for sale was a considerable challenge. It created intense bidding wars which drove home prices up as buyers competed with one another to be the winning offer. But what was once your greatest challenge may now be your greatest opportunity. Today, data shows buyer demand is moderating in the wake of higher mortgage rates. Here are a few reasons why this shift in the housing market is good news for your homebuying plans. The Challenge There were many reasons for the limited number of homes on the market during the pandemic, including a history of underbuilding new homes since the market crash in 2008. As the graph below shows, housing supply is well below what the market has seen for most of the past 10 years The Opportunity But that graph also shows a trend back up in the right direction this year. That’s because moderating demand is slowing the pace of home sales and that’s one of the reasons housing supply is finally able to grow. For you, that means you’ll have more options to choose from, so it shouldn’t be as difficult to find your next home as it has been recently. And having more options may also lead to less intense bidding wars. Data from the Realtors Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows this trend has already begun. In their recent reports, bidding wars are easing month-over-month If you’ve been outbid before or you’ve struggled to find a home that meets your needs, breathe a welcome sigh of relief. The big takeaway here is you have more options and less competition today. Just remember, while easing, data shows multiple-offer scenarios are still happening – they’re just not as intense as they were over the past year. You should still lean on an agent to guide you through the process and help you make your strongest offer up front.

Why the Forbearance Program Changed the Housing Market

When the pandemic hit in 2020, many experts thought the housing market would crash. They feared job loss and economic uncertainty would lead to a wave of foreclosures similar to when the housing bubble burst over a decade ago. Thankfully, the forbearance program changed that. It provided much-needed relief for homeowners so a foreclosure crisis wouldn’t happen again. Here’s why forbearance worked. Forbearance enabled nearly five million homeowners to get back on their feet in a time when having the security and protection of a home was more important than ever. Those in need were able to work with their banks and lenders to stay in their homes rather than go into foreclosure. Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), notes: “Most borrowers exiting forbearance are moving into either a loan modification, payment deferral, or a combination of the two workout options." As the graph below shows, with modification, deferral, and workout options in place, four out of every five homeowners in forbearance are either paid in full or are exiting with a plan. They’re able to stay in their homes. Why the Forbearance Program Changed the Housing Market | MyKCM What does this mean for the housing market? Since so many people can stay in their homes and work out alternative options, there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. And while rising slightly since the foreclosure moratorium was lifted this year, foreclosures today are still nowhere near the levels seen in the housing crisis. Forbearance wasn’t the only game changer, either. Lending standards have improved significantly since the housing bubble burst, and that’s one more thing keeping foreclosure filings low. Today’s borrowers are much more qualified to pay their home loans. And while the majority of homeowners are exiting the forbearance program with a plan, for those who still need to make a change due to financial hardship or other challenges, today’s record-level of equity is giving them the opportunity to sell their houses and avoid foreclosure altogether. Homeowners have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Thanks to their equity and the current undersupply of homes on the market, homeowners can sell their houses, make a move, and not have to go through the foreclosure process that led to the housing market crash in 2008.

Housing Market Forecast for the Rest of 2022

The housing market is shifting away from the intensity of the past two years. Here’s what experts project for the remainder of 2022. Home prices are forecast to rise more moderately than last year. Mortgage rates will respond to inflation, and home sales will be more in line with pre-pandemic years. Let’s connect so you can make your best move this year.

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3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble. As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what’ll happen next. It’s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time. There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation. For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, supply is growing, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available. The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply at the current sales pace. 3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | MyKCM One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast home prices won’t fall this time. Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. 3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | MyKCM Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says: “Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.” Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time. The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help tell the story: 3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | MyKCM In addition, homeowners today are equity rich, not tapped out. In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area. Today, prices have risen nicely over the last few years, and that’s given homeowners an equity boost. According to Black Knight: “In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months – a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .” With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.

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Want To Buy a Home? Now May Be the Time.

There are more homes for sale today than at any time last year. So, if you tried to buy a home last year and were outbid or out priced, now may be your opportunity. The number of homes for sale in the U.S. has been growing over the past four months as rising mortgage rates help slow the frenzy the housing market saw during the pandemic. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why the shifting market creates a window of opportunity for you: “This is an opportunity for people with a secure job to jump into the market, when other people are a little hesitant because of a possible recession. . . They’ll have fewer buyers to compete with.” Two Reasons There Are More Homes for Sale The first reason the market is seeing more homes available for sale is the number of sales happening each month has decreased. This slowdown has been caused by rising mortgage rates and rising home prices, leading many to postpone or put off buying. The graph below uses data from realtor.com to show how active real estate listings have risen over the past four months as a result. The second reason the market is seeing more homes available for sale is because the number of people selling their homes is also rising. The graph below outlines new monthly listings coming onto the market compared to last year. As the graph shows, for the past three months, more people have put their homes on the market than the previous year.

A Window of Opportunity for Homebuyers

Mortgage rates are much higher today than they were at the beginning of the year, and that’s had a clear impact on the housing market. As a result, the market is seeing a shift back toward the range of pre-pandemic levels for buyer demand and home sales. But the transition back toward pre-pandemic levels isn’t a bad thing. In fact, the years leading up to the pandemic were some of the best the housing market has seen. That’s why, as the market undergoes this shift, it’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal years to show how the current housing market is still strong. Higher Mortgage Rates Are Moderating the Housing Market The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s also a good indication of buyer demand over time. Here’s a look at their data going back to 2017 (see graph below): A Window of Opportunity for Homebuyers | MyKCM Here’s a breakdown of the story this data tells: The 2017 through early 2020 numbers (shown in gray) give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand. The steady up and down trends seen in each of these years show typical seasonality in the market. The blue on the graph represents the pandemic years. The height of those blue bars indicates home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic. The most recent data (shown in green), indicates buyer demand is moderating back toward more pre-pandemic levels. This shows that buyer demand is coming down from levels seen over the past two years, and the frenzy in real estate is easing because of higher mortgage rates. For you, that means buying your next home should be less challenging than it would’ve been during the pandemic because there is more inventory available. Higher Mortgage Rates Slow the Once Frenzied Pace of Home Sales As mortgage rates started to rise this year, other shifts began to occur too. One additional example is the slowing pace of home sales. Using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2017. Much like the previous graph, a similar trend emerges (see graph below): A Window of Opportunity for Homebuyers | MyKCM Again, the data paints a picture of the shift: The pre-pandemic years (shown in gray) establish a baseline of the number of existing home sales in more typical years. The pandemic years (shown in blue) exceeded the level of sales seen in previous years. That’s largely because low mortgage rates during that time spurred buyer demand and home sales to new heights. This year (shown in green), the market is feeling the impact of higher mortgage rates and that’s moderating buyer demand (and by extension home sales). That’s why the expectation for home sales this year is closer to what the market saw in 2018-2019. Why Is All of This Good News for You? Both of those factors have opened up a window of opportunity for homeowners looking to move and for buyers looking to purchase a home. As demand moderates and the pace of home sales slows, housing inventory is able to grow – and that gives you more options for your home search. So don’t let the headlines about the market cooling or moderating scare you. The housing market is still strong; it’s just easing off from the unsustainable frenzy it saw during the height of the pandemic – and that’s a good thing. It opens up new opportunities for you to find a home that meets your needs.

What’s Causing Ongoing Home Price Appreciation?

If you’re thinking about making a move, you probably want to know what’s going to happen to home prices for the rest of the year. While experts say price growth will moderate due to the shifting market, ongoing appreciation is expected. That means home prices won’t fall. Here’s a look at two key reasons experts forecast continued price growth: supply and demand. While Growing, Housing Supply Is Still Low Even though inventory is increasing this year as the market moderates, supply is still low. The graph below helps tell the story of why there still aren’t enough homes on the market today. It uses data from the Census to show the number of single-family homes that were built in this country going all the way back to the 1970s. What’s Causing Ongoing Home Price Appreciation? | MyKCM The blue bars represent the years leading up to the housing crisis in 2008. As the graph shows, right before the crash, homebuilding increased significantly. That’s because buyer demand was so high due to loose lending standards that enabled more people to qualify for a home loan. The resulting oversupply of homes for sale led to prices dropping during the crash and some builders leaving the industry or closing their businesses – and that led to a long period of underbuilding of new homes. And even as more new homes are constructed this year and in the years ahead, this isn’t something that can be resolved overnight. It’ll take time to build enough homes to meet the deficit of underbuilding that took place over the past 14 years. Millennials Will Create Sustained Buyer Demand Moving Forward The frenzy the market saw during the pandemic is because there was more demand than homes for sale. That drove home prices up as buyers competed with one another for available homes. And while buyer demand has moderated today in response to higher mortgage rates, data tells us demand will continue to be driven by the large generation of millennials aging into their peak homebuying years (see graph below): What’s Causing Ongoing Home Price Appreciation? | MyKCM Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains: “. . . millennials continue to transition to their prime home-buying age and will remain the driving force in potential homeownership demand in the years ahead.” That combination of millennial demand and low housing supply continues to put upward pressure on home prices. As Bankrate says: “After all, supplies of homes for sale remain near record lows. And while a jump in mortgage rates has dampened demand somewhat, demand still outpaces supply, thanks to a combination of little new construction and strong household formation by large numbers of millennials.” What This Means for Home Prices If you’re worried home values will fall, rest assured that experts forecast ongoing home price appreciation thanks to the lingering imbalance of supply and demand. That means home prices won’t decline.

Expert Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

The housing market is at a turning point, and if you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, that may leave you wondering: is it still a good time to buy a home? Should I make a move this year? To help answer those questions, let’s turn to the experts for projections on what the second half of the year holds for residential real estate. Where Mortgage Rates Will Go Depends on Inflation While one of the big questions on all buyers’ minds is where will mortgage rates go in the months ahead, no one has a crystal ball to know exactly what’ll happen in the future. What housing market experts know for sure is that the record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic were an outlier, not the norm. This year, rates have climbed over 2% due to the Federal Reserve’s response to rising inflation. If inflation continues to rise, it’s likely that mortgage rates will respond. Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains it well: “Until inflation peaks, mortgage rates won’t either. Without improvement on the inflation front, we don’t know where the interest rate ceiling will be.” Whether you’re buying your first home or selling your current house to make a move, today’s mortgage rate is an important factor to consider. When rates rise, they impact affordability and your purchasing power. That’s why it’s crucial to work with a team of professionals, so you have expert advice to help you make an informed decision about your best move. The Supply of Homes for Sale Projected To Continue Increasing This year, particularly this spring, the number of homes for sale has grown. That’s partly due to more homeowners listing their houses, but also because higher mortgage rates have helped ease the intensity of buyer demand. Moderating buyer demand slows down the pace of home sales, which in turn helps inventory rise. Experts say that growth will continue. Recently, realtor.com updated their 2022 inventory forecast. In the latest release, they increased their projections for inventory gains dramatically, going from a 0.3% increase at the beginning of the year to a 15.0% jump by the end of 2022 (see graph below): Expert Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year | MyKCM More homes to choose from is great news if you’re craving more options for your home search – just know that there isn’t a sudden surplus of inventory on the horizon. Housing supply is still low, so you’ll need to partner with an agent to stay on top of what’s available in your market and move fast when you find the one. It’s not going to be easy to find a home, but it certainly won’t be as difficult as it has been over the past two years. Home Price Forecasts Call for Ongoing Appreciation Due to the imbalance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers looking to make a purchase, the pandemic led to record-breaking increases in home prices. According to CoreLogic, homes appreciated by 15% in 2021, and they’ve continued to rise this year. Even though housing supply is increasing today, there are still more buyers than there are homes for sale, and that’s maintaining the upward pressure on home prices. That’s why experts are not calling for prices to decline, rather they’re forecasting they’ll continue to climb, just at a more moderate pace this year. On average, homes are projected to appreciate by about 8.5% in 2022 (see graph below): Expert Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year | MyKCM Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains why the housing market will see deceleration, but not depreciation, in prices: “The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.” For current homeowners looking to sell, know your home’s value isn’t projected to fall, but waiting to make your purchase does mean your next home could cost more as home prices continue to appreciate. That’s why, if you’re thinking about buying your first home or you’re ready to make a move, it may make sense to do so now before prices climb higher. But rest assured, once you buy a home, that price appreciation will help grow the value of your investment.

The Drop in Mortgage Rates Brings Good News for Homebuyers

Over the past few weeks, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac fell by half a percent. The drop happened over concerns about a potential recession. And since mortgage rates have risen dramatically this year, homebuyers across the country should see this decline as welcome news. Freddie Mac reports that the average 30-year rate was down to 5.30% from 5.81% two weeks prior (see graph below): The Drop in Mortgage Rates Brings Good News for Homebuyers | MyKCM But why is this recent dip such good news for homebuyers? As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped sharply by 40 basis points to 5.3 percent. . . . As a result, home buying is about 5 percent more affordable than a week ago. This translates to about $100 less every month on a mortgage payment.” That’s because when rates go up (as they have for the majority of this year), they impact how much you’ll pay in your monthly mortgage payment, which directly affects how much you can comfortably afford. The inverse is also true. A decrease in mortgage rates means an increase in your purchasing power.

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market?

According to a recent survey, more and more Americans are concerned about a possible recession. Those concerns were validated when the Federal Reserve met and confirmed they were strongly committed to bringing down inflation. And, in order to do so, they’d use their tools and influence to slow down the economy. All of this brings up many fears and questions around how it might affect our lives, our jobs, and business overall. And one concern many Americans have is: how will this affect the housing market? We know how economic slowdowns have impacted home prices in the past, but how could this next slowdown affect real estate and the cost of financing a home? According to Mortgage Specialists: “Throughout history, during a recessionary period, interest rates go up at the beginning of the recession. But in order to come out of a recession, interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy moving forward.” Here’s the data to back that up. If you look back at each recession going all the way to the early 1980s, here’s what happened to mortgage rates during those times (see chart below): What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM As the chart shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased. Fortune.com helps explain the trend like this: “Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.” And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from it. While an economic slowdown needs to happen to help taper inflation, it hasn’t always been a bad thing for the housing market. Typically, it has meant that the cost to finance a home has gone down, and that’s a good thing.

A Key Opportunity for Homebuyers

There’s no denying the housing marketplace has introduced a truthful percentage of demanding situations to homebuyers over the last years. Two of the most important hurdles homebuyers confronted in the course of the pandemic had been the constrained quantity of houses on the market and the depth and frequency of bidding wars. But the ones matters have reached a turning point. As you could have already heard, the quantity of houses on the market has elevated this yr, or even extra so this spring. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, explains: “New listings–a degree of dealers setting houses up on the market–had been up 6�ove 365 days ago. Home dealers in lots of markets throughout the us of a maintain to advantage from growing domestic costs and speedy-promoting houses. That’s caused a developing quantity of owners to promote houses this yr as compared to last, giving domestic buyers a good deal wished alternatives.” This is encouraging information. More houses coming onto the marketplace come up with a more hazard of locating one which tests all of your boxes. Buyer Competition Moderating Helps Inventory Grow Even More Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says stock increase is going on now no longer simply due to the fact there’s an growth withinside the quantity of listings coming onto the marketplace, however additionally due to the fact customer call for has moderated a few in mild of better loan charges and different financial factors: “There has been a pickup withinside the stock that we have got visible recently, however it is now no longer from a massive growth in new listings . . . however as a substitute a slowdown withinside the tempo of income. And do not forget that months’ deliver measures the stock of sale relative to the tempo of income. Same stock, fewer income, manner extra months’ deliver.” Basically, the marketplace is transferring farfar from the rush of customer opposition visible in the course of the pandemic, and that’s supporting to be had stock develop. In their present day forecast, realtor.com additionally mentions the moderation of call for as a key element and initiatives the stock increase have to maintain: “As growing inflation and loan charges carry U.S. housing call for lower back from the 2021 frenzy, . . . stock will develop double-digits over 2021 and provide shoppers a better-than-anticipated hazard to discover a domestic.” How This Impacts You The aggregate of extra houses coming onto the marketplace and a slower tempo of domestic income manner you’ll have extra alternatives to pick from as you look for your subsequent domestic. That’s amazing information if you’ve been trying to find some time with little to no luck. Just do not forget, there isn’t a unexpected surplus of stock, simply extra houses to pick from than even some months ago. So, you’ll nevertheless need to be decisive and circulate speedy while you locate the proper domestic for you. And while you do, you will be confronted with much less opposition from different shoppers too. If you’ve been ready to leap into the marketplace due to the fact the depth of the bidding wars became intimidating or if you’ve been outbid on numerous houses, this moderation ought to assist make the homebuying method a piece smoother. It’s now no longer that it’ll be smooth or that bidding wars are a factor of the past – that’s now no longer the case. But it won’t experience almost as impossible.

Homeownership Is a Great Hedge Against the Impact of Rising Inflation

If you’re following at the side of the information these days, you’ve heard approximately growing inflation. Today, inflation is at a 40-12 months excessive. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): “Consumer charges improved once more in May as shelter, electricity and meals charges persevered to surge on the quickest tempo in many years. This marked the 1/3 instantly month for inflation above an 8% price and changed into the most important 12 months-over-12 months benefit because December 1981.” With inflation growing, you’re in all likelihood feeling it effect your everyday lifestyles as charges pass up for gas, groceries, and greater. These mountain climbing client charges can placed a pinch in your pockets and make you re-compare any huge purchases you've got got deliberate to make certain they’re nevertheless worthwhile. If you’ve been considering buying a domestic this 12 months, you’re in all likelihood thinking in case you must preserve down that route or if it makes greater feel to wait. While the solution relies upon in your situation, right here’s how homeownership let you fight the growing charges that include inflation. Homeownership Helps You Stabilize One of Your Biggest Monthly Expenses Investopedia explains that in a length of excessive inflation, charges upward thrust throughout the board. That’s authentic for such things as meals, entertainment, and different items and services, even housing. Both apartment charges and domestic charges are at the upward thrust. So, as a buyer, how will you guard your self from growing charges? The solution lies in homeownership. Buying a domestic permits you to stabilize what’s commonly your largest month-to-month expense: your housing cost. When you've got got a fixed-price loan in your domestic, you lock to your month-to-month charge during your loan, frequently 15 to 30 years. James Royal, Senior Wealth Management Reporter at Bankrate, says: “A fixed-price loan permits you to keep the most important part of housing costs on the identical charge. Sure, belongings taxes will upward thrust and different costs might also additionally creep up, however your month-to-month housing charge stays the identical. That’s honestly now no longer the case in case you’re renting.” So although different charges increase, your housing charge might be a dependable quantity which could assist hold your price range in check. If you rent, you don’t have that identical benefit, and also you won’t be blanketed from growing housing charges. Investing in an Asset That Historically Outperforms Inflation While it’s authentic growing domestic charges and better loan quotes imply that shopping for a residence these days charges greater than it did even some months ago, you continue to have an possibility to set your self up for a long-time period win. That’s because, in inflationary times, you need to be invested in an asset that outperforms inflation and commonly holds or grows in value. The graph under indicates how the common domestic charge appreciation outperformed the common inflation price in maximum many years going all of the manner again to the seventies – making homeownership a traditionally sturdy hedge towards inflation So, what does that imply for you? Today, professionals forecast domestic charges will best pass up from right here way to the continued imbalance of deliver and demand. Once you purchase a residence, any domestic charge appreciation that does arise will develop your fairness and your internet worth. And because houses are commonly belongings that develop in value, you've got got peace of thoughts that records indicates your funding is a sturdy one. That means, in case you’re prepared and able, it makes feel to shop for these days earlier than charges upward thrust further.

Things To Avoid After Applying for a Home Loan

While it’s interesting to begin considering shifting in and decorating, be cautious in terms of making any large purchases. Here are some matters you can now no longer comprehend you want to keep away from after making use of for your private home mortgage. Don’t Deposit Large Sums of Cash Lenders want to supply your cash, and coins isn’t without difficulty traceable. It’s now no longer simply home-associated purchases that might disqualify you out of your mortgage. Blips in earnings, assets, or credit score must be reviewed and completed in a manner that guarantees your private home mortgage can nevertheless be approved

The Average Homeowner Gained $64K in Equity over the Past Year

Basically, due to the fact your private home fee has possibly climbed a lot, your fairness has extended too. According to the modern Homeowner Equity Insights from CoreLogic, the common homeowner’s fairness has grown by $64,000 during the last 12 months. In addition to constructing your ordinary internet really well worth, fairness also can assist you gain different desires like shopping for your subsequent domestic. So, in case you’ve been retaining off on promoting or you’re concerned approximately being priced from your subsequent domestic due to today’s ongoing domestic charge appreciation, relaxation confident your fairness can assist gas your move.

Why Achieving the Dream of Homeownership Can Be More Difficult for Some Americans

It’s a extra hard adventure to reap homeownership for a few buyers, as proven with the aid of using the measurable hole among the general common U.S. homeownership charge and that of non-white companies. This now no longer simplest makes it extra hard to come up with the money for a domestic, however additionally to build up and byskip on generational wealth.” This can postpone or save you many from reaching homeownership, hard their capacity to develop their internet really well worth and construct wealth that may byskip right all the way down to destiny generations – a factor that’s clean in a 2022 file from the National Association of Realtors (NAR)

More Listings Are Coming onto the Market

Worried you won’t be capable of discover your subsequent domestic when you sell? You ought to recognize statistics from realtor.com indicates greater listings are coming onto the marketplace every month this year. Having extra alternatives could make the look for your subsequent domestic. But stock remains low overall, because of this that your property ought to nonetheless stand out while you sell. If your largest query is wherein you’ll pass in case you sell, take this as encouraging news. Let’s join to begin the technique today

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation

Experts withinside the actual property enterprise use some of phrases once they communicate approximately what is occurring with domestic costs. And a number of the ones phrases sound a piece comparable however suggest very distinctive things. To assist make clear what is occurring with domestic costs and in which professionals say they are going, here’s a examine some phrases you can hear: Appreciation is whilst domestic costs growth. Depreciation is whilst domestic costs decrease. Deceleration is whilst domestic costs hold to appreciate, however at a slower pace. Where Home Prices Have Been in Recent Years For starters, you’ve likely heard domestic costs have skyrocketed over the last years, however houses have been certainly appreciating lengthy earlier than that. You is probably amazed to study that domestic costs have climbed for 122 consecutive months

A Majority of Consumers Say It’s a Good Time To Sell Your House

The graph under indicates the share of survey respondents who say it’s an amazing time to promote a residence. Since then, the share has grown continually as extra human beings experience assured it’s an amazing time to promote. In fact, survey respondents assume it’s an excellent higher time to promote a residence nowadays than they did in 2019, which changed into a sturdy yr for the housing marketplace. One purpose such a lot of human beings assume it’s an amazing time to promote is due to the fact there are nonetheless extra customers in nowadays’s marketplace than there are houses for sale.

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

If you're following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know. The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis. This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says: “The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .” Home Showings Then and Now The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below): Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels. And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels. Existing Home Sales Then and Now Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below): Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well. It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this: “. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”

More Americans Choose Real Estate as the Best Investment Than Ever Before

Americans’ opinion on the value of real estate as an investment is climbing. That’s according to an annual survey from Gallup. Not only is real estate viewed as the best investment for the ninth year in a row, but more Americans selected it than ever before. The graph below shows the results of the survey since Gallup began asking the question in 2011. As the trend lines indicate, real estate has been gaining ground as the clear favorite for almost a decade now: More Americans Choose Real Estate as the Best Investment Than Ever Before | MyKCM If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, let this poll reassure you. Even when inflation is high like today, Americans recognize owning a home is a powerful financial decision. How an Investment in Real Estate Can Benefit You During High Inflation Because inflation reached its highest level in 40 years recently, it’s more important than ever to understand the financial benefits of homeownership. Rising inflation means prices are increasing across the board, and that includes goods, services, housing costs, and more. When you purchase your home, you lock in your monthly housing payments, effectively shielding yourself from increases on one of your biggest budgetary items each month. If you’re a renter, you don’t have that same benefit, and you aren’t protected from these increases, especially as rents rise. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, notes: “Rising rents, which continue to climb at double-digit pace . . . and the prospect of locking in a monthly housing cost in a market with widespread inflation are motivating today’s first-time homebuyers.” When Inflation Has Risen in the Past, Home Prices Have Too Your house is also an asset that typically increases in value over time, even during inflation. That‘s because as prices rise, the value of your home does too. Mark Cussen, Financial Writer for Investopedia, puts it like this: “There are many advantages to investing in real estate. . . . It often acts as a good inflation hedge since there will always be a demand for homes, regardless of the economic climate, and because as inflation rises, so do property values. . . .” And since rising home values help increase your equity, and by extension your net worth, homeownership is historically a good hedge against inflation.

Luxury Homes Are in High Demand

As people realize their needs are changing, some are turning to luxury housing to find their dream home. Investopedia helps define what pushes a home into this category. In a recent article, they point out that a luxury home isn’t only defined by its price. Location is also an important factor. It could be a condo at a desirable city address, a spacious home on the water, or one with access to luxury activities like arts and entertainment, high-end shopping and dining, and more. The home itself will also boast some of the finest features available. According to the Luxury Market Report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, there’s been a substantial increase in how many buyers are purchasing luxury homes over the past two years. It says: “. . . North America recorded the fastest growth of demand during the first year of the pandemic. Also, demand has . . . consistently increased, and even in April 2022, we saw a higher volume of sales compared to 2021.” If you own a luxury home, it could be a great time to list your house today while demand is so high. But first, let’s understand where the demand is coming from. What’s Driving the Heightened Buyer Demand for High-End Homes? The same report says more people have reached a certain net-worth threshold, and that’s contributing to the increased interest in luxury housing: “In 2020, we saw a 2.2% growth in the number of individuals with wealth of over $5 million in net value, but in 2021 that number grew by an outstanding 19.8%. This total increase has resulted in the introduction of over 660,000 new individuals into the high net-worth bracket, which, combined with the existing affluent looking to both diversify and add new properties to their portfolio, provides a true insight into why the demand for luxury properties skyrocketed during 2021 and into 2022.” So, if you’re looking to make changes to your real estate portfolio or are looking to sell your current house, it may be a great time to list and benefit from the high demand for luxury homes today.

Why Summer Is a Great Time To Buy a Vacation Home

You may be someone who looks forward to summer each year because it gives you an opportunity to rest, unwind, and enjoy more quality time with your loved ones. Now that summer is just around the corner, it’s worthwhile to start thinking about your plans and where you want to spend your vacations this year. Here are a few reasons a vacation home could be right for you. Why You May Want To Consider a Vacation Home Today Over the past two years, a lot has changed. You may be one of many people who now work from home and have added flexibility in where you live. You may also be someone who delayed trips for personal or health reasons. If either is true for you, there could be a unique opportunity to use the flexibility that comes with remote work or the money saved while not traveling to invest in your future by buying a vacation home. Bankrate explains why a second home, or a vacation home, may be something worth considering: “For those who are able, buying a second home is suddenly more appealing, as remote working became the norm for many professionals during the pandemic. Why not work from the place where you like to vacation — the place where you want to live? If you don’t work remotely, a vacation home could still be at the top of your wish list if you have a favorite getaway spot that you visit often. It beats staying in a tiny hotel room or worrying about rental rates each time you want to take a trip.” How a Professional Can Help You Find the Right One So, if you’re looking for an oasis, you may be able to make it a second home rather than just the destination for a trip. If you could see yourself soaking up the sun in a vacation home, you may want to start your search. Summer is a popular time to buy vacation homes. By beginning the process now, you could get ahead of the competition. The first step is working with a local real estate advisor who can help you find a home in your desired location. A professional has the knowledge and resources to help you understand the market, what homes are available and at what price points, and more. They can also walk you through all the perks of owning a second home and how it can benefit you. A recent article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), mentions some of the top reasons buyers today are looking into purchasing a second, or a vacation, home: “According to Google's data, the top reasons that homeowners cited for purchasing a second home were to diversify their investments, earn money renting, and use as a vacation home.” If any of the reasons covered here resonate with you, connect with a real estate professional to learn more. They can give you expert advice based on what you need, your goals, and what you’re hoping to get out of your second home.let’s connect.

Sellers Have an Opportunity with Today’s Home Prices

As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homeowners began to wonder if the value of their homes would fall. Here’s the good news. Historically, when mortgage rates rise by a percentage point or more, home values continue to appreciate. The latest data on home prices seems to confirm that trend. According to data from CoreLogic, home price appreciation has been re-accelerating since November. The graph below shows this increase in home price appreciation in green: Sellers Have an Opportunity as Home Prices Re-Accelerate | MyKCMThis is largely due to an ongoing imbalance in supply and demand. Specifically, housing supply is still low, and demand is high. As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homebuyers rushed to make their purchases before those rates could climb higher. The increased competition drove home prices up even more. Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains: “Home price growth continued to gain speed in early spring, as eager buyers tried to get in front of the mortgage rate surge.” And experts say prices are forecast to continue appreciating, just at a more moderate pace moving forward. A recent article from Fortune says: “. . . the swift move up in mortgage rates . . . doesn’t mean home prices are about to crash. In fact, every major real estate firm with a publicly released forecast model . . . still predicts home prices will climb further this year.” What This Means for You If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know you have a great opportunity to list your home and capitalize on today’s home price appreciation. As prices rise, so does the value of your home, which gives your equity a big boost. When you sell, you can use that equity toward the purchase of your next home. And at today’s record-level of appreciation, that equity may be enough to cover some (if not all) of your down payment.our local area, let’s connect.

Work With a Real Estate Professional if You Want the Best Advice

Because buying or selling a home is such a big decision in our lives, the need for clear, trustworthy information and guidance is crucial. And while no one can give you perfect advice, when you align yourself with an expert, you’ll get the best advice for your situation. An Expert Will Give You the Best Advice Possible Let’s say you need an attorney, so you seek out an expert in the type of law required for your case. When you go to their office, they won’t immediately tell you how the case is going to end or how the judge or jury will rule. What a good attorney can do, though, is discuss the most effective strategies you can take. They may recommend one or two approaches they believe will work well for your case. Then, they’ll leave you to make the decision on which option you want to pursue. Once you decide, they can help you put a plan together based on the facts at hand. They’ll use their expert knowledge to work toward the resolution you want and make whatever modifications in the strategy necessary to try and achieve that outcome. Similarly, the job of a trusted real estate professional is to give you the best advice for your situation. Just like you can’t find a lawyer to give you perfect advice, you won’t find a real estate professional who can either. They can’t because it’s impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen throughout your transaction. They also can’t predict exactly what will happen with conditions in today’s housing market. But an expert real estate advisor is knowledgeable about market trends and the ins and outs of the homebuying and selling process. With that knowledge, they can anticipate what could happen based on your situation and help you put together a solid plan. And they’ll guide you through the process, helping you make decisions along the way. That’s the very definition of getting the best – not perfect – advice. And that’s the power of working with an expert real estate advisor.

Don’t Let Rising Inflation Delay Your Homeownership Plans

If recent headlines about rising inflation are making you wonder if it’s still a good time to buy, here’s what experts have to say. Housing is an asset that typically grows in value. Plus, your mortgage helps stabilize your monthly housing costs, and buying protects you from rising rents. Experts say owning a home is historically a good hedge against inflation.

The One Thing Every Homeowner Needs To Know About a Recession

A recession does not equal a housing crisis. That’s the one thing that every homeowner today needs to know. Everywhere you look, experts are warning we could be heading toward a recession, and if true, an economic slowdown doesn’t mean homes will lose value. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession this way: “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.” To help show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, take a look at the historical data. There have been six recessions in this country over the past four decades. As the graph below shows, looking at the recessions going all the way back to the 1980s, home prices appreciated four times and depreciated only two times. So, historically, there’s proof that when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall or depreciate. The One Thing Every Homeowner Needs To Know About a Recession | MyKCM The first occasion on the graph when home values depreciated was in the early 1990s when home prices dropped by less than 2%. It happened again during the housing crisis in 2008 when home values declined by almost 20%. Most people vividly remember the housing crisis in 2008 and think if we were to fall into a recession that we’d repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t a bubble that’s about to burst. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, we shouldn’t assume we’re heading down the same path.

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you’ve probably heard mortgage rates are rising and have wondered what that means for you. Since mortgage rates have increased over two percentage points this year, it’s natural to think about how this will impact your homeownership plans. Today, buyers are reacting in one of two ways: they’re either making the decision to buy now before rates climb higher or they’re waiting it out in hopes rates will fall. Let’s look at some context that can help you understand why so many buyers are jumping off the fence and into action rather than waiting to buy. A Look Back: How the Current Mortgage Rate Compares to Historical Data One factor that could help you make your decision to buy now is how today’s mortgage rates compare to historical data. While higher than the average 30-year fixed rate in recent years, the latest rates are still comparatively low when you look at the bigger picture of where rates have been since 1971 (see graph below): Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence | MyKCM Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains it like this: “. . . historical context is important. An average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate of 5.5 percent is still well below the historical average of nearly 8 percent.” If you’re deciding whether to buy now or wait, this is important context to have. Today’s mortgage rate still gives you a window of opportunity to lock in a rate that’s comparatively lower than decades past. A Look Ahead: What Happens if Rates Climb Further The buyers who are springing into action now are also motivated to make their move because they know rates have risen steadily this year, and they’re eager to get ahead of any further increases. Why? When mortgage rates climb, they impact the monthly mortgage payment you’ll have on the home you’re buying. Basically, it’ll likely cost you more to buy a home if you wait. Experts say mortgage rates will rise (although more moderately) in the months ahead. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains: “. . . ongoing inflationary pressure remains likely to push mortgage rates even higher in the months to come.” So, if you’re ready and financially able to buy now, it may make more sense to get off the fence and make your purchase sooner rather than later. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “With even higher interest rates on the horizon, I don’t see any reason to hold off from purchasing a home right now. If you feel financially secure, you should start looking for a home.” At the end of the day, there is no perfect advice on when to buy a home. What you should do depends on your goals, your finances, and your personal situation. Use this information with the help of local real estate professionals to make an informed decision on what’s best for you. Bill McBride of Calculated Risk sums it up best: “. . . if you’re on the fence about whether to buy now or wait for a better deal, buying sooner rather than later might be wise. That said, home buying is always a personal decision. Whether you should buy in 2022 depends on your financial situation and the local housing market where you live.”