New Home Supplies Fall To An 18-Month Low

If you plan to buy of new construction in New York sometime in 2012, don't expect today's low prices. Like everything in housing of late, the market for newly-built homes appears to be stabilizing and, in some markets, improving.

As foreshadowed by this month's strong Homebuilder Confidence survey, the Census Bureau reports that the number of new homes sold rose to a 6-month high in October, climbing to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.

A "new home" is a home that is considered new construction. It's the opposite of an "existing home".

Home buyers are comparing new construction to home resales and liking what they see. At the current sales pace, the nation's complete new home inventory would now be depleted in just 6.3 months. This marks the lowest home supply since April 2010 -- the last month of the last year's federal homebuyer tax credit.

By building only to meet new demand, builders are keeping home supplies in check, and home prices stable. They've also found a niche market -- 80% of homes sold last month sold for less than $300,000.

Split by region, the Census Bureau reports October's New Home Sales as follows :

• Northeast Region : +0.0% from September 2011 
• Midwest Region : +22.2% from September 2011 
• South Region : -9.5% from September 2011 
• West Region : -14.9% from September 2011 

Unfortunately, the data may be incorrect.

Although the October New Home Sales report says that sales climbed 1.3 percent last month, the government's data was published with a ±19.7% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales reading may have been as high as +21.0 percent, or as low as -18.4 percent. Because the range of values includes both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its October data "zero confidence".

As home buyers, then, we can't take our market cues from the published data. Instead, we should look to other metrics including Housing Starts data and the aforementioned homebuilder confidence survey. Each points to strength in the new home market, and foretells higher home prices in 2012.

If you're in the market for new construction, consider writing an offer soon. Home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too -- a combination that keeps home payments low. Next year, that may not be the case.

Home Improvement Projects : How Much Equity Will You Build?

Home improvement projects are booming, expected to cross $110 billion in total volume this quarter. Unlike in recent years, however, the projects aren't helping to create much new home equity.

According to Remodeling Magazine's Cost vs Value Report 2011-2012, for each home improvement dollar spent in 2012, homeowners can expect to recoup just 58 cents in home equity. 

This figure is down sharply from 2005, when the cost-to-value ratio was 87 percent. 

Today's Brooklyn, NY homeowners get a much smaller payoff on their home improvement projects. If you're planning to remodel/update in preparation for sale, therefore, consider the following projects, each of which carries a high cost-to-value ratio.

From Remodeling Magazine's "Mid-Range Project" list :

• Steel Entry Door Replacement : Cost, $1,238; Recoup, 73.0%
• Attic Bedroom : Cost, $50,184; Recoup, 72.5%
• Minor Kitchen Remodel : Cost, $19,588; Recoup, 72.1%
• Garage Door Replacement : Cost, $1,512; Recoup, 71.9%
• Wood Deck Addition : Cost, $10,350; Recoup 70.1%

By contrast, other projects carry a low cost-to-value ratio, and should only be undertaken if the project's utility exceeds its cost. These projects don't do much to raise a home's resale value.

• Home Office Remodel : Cost, $27,963; Recoup, 42.9%
• Sunroom Addition : Cost, $34,133; Recoup, 45.9%
• Backup Power Generator : Cost, $14,760; Recoup, 47.5%
• Bathroom Addition : Cost, $140,096512; Recoup, 51.0%
• Fiberglass Entry Door Replacement : Cost, $3,536; Recoup 56.3%

In the "Upscale Projects" category, projects including the replacement of doors, siding and windows occupy the list's first 6 slots in terms of cost-to-value. 

If you're planning a home improvement project over the next few months, the timing is right -- both contractor costs and material costs are low nationwide, and improving a home can extend its useful life.

See the complete Cost vs Value report online.

Conforming Loan Limits Unchanged For 2012

A conforming mortgage is one that, literally, conforms to the mortgage guidelines as set forth by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

Conforming mortgage guidelines are Fannie's and Freddie's eligibility standards; an underwriter's series of check-boxes to determine whether a given loan should be approved.

Among the many traits of a conforming mortgage is "loan size".

Each year, the government re-assesses its maximum allowable loan size based on "typical" housing costs nationwide. Loans that fall at, or below, this amount meet conforming mortgage guidelines. Loans in excess of this limit are known as "jumbo" loans.

Between 1980 and 2006, as home values increased, conforming loan limits did, too, rising from $93,750 to $417,000. Since 2006, however, despite falling home prices in many U.S. markets, the conforming loan limit has held steady.  This will remain true for 2012 as well. 

In 2012, for the 7th straight year, the national, single-family conforming mortgage loan limit will remain at $417,000.

The complete 2012 conforming loan limit breakdown, by property type :

• 1-unit properties : $417,000
• 2-unit properties : $533,850
• 3-unit properties : $645,300
• 4-unit properties : $801,950

However, there are some areas nationally that have earned "loan limit exceptions" based on the local median sales prices. These areas are known as "high-cost" areas and loan limits within these regions range from $417,001 to a maximum of $625,500.

Some examples of high-cost areas include San Francisco (along with a most of California), New York City, and most of Hawaii and Alaska. Nationally, there are approximately 200 such "high-cost" areas.

Verify your local conforming loan limit and loan limits across New York via the Fannie Mae website. A complete county-by-county list is published online.

More Sales, Less Inventory : Home Prices Headed Higher?

The housing market continues to signal that a broad rebound is underway. In October, despite sparse home inventory, the number of properties sold increased 1.4% nationwide.

According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, October Existing Home Sales gained 70,000 units as compared to September, registering 4.97 million existing homes sold overall.

An "existing home" is a home that has been previously occupied and, as compared to prior months, the stock of homes for sale is depleted. 

Just 3.3 million homes were listed for sale last month. This represents a 2 percent drop from September and marks the sparsest home resale inventory of 2011.

The current home supply would last 8.0 months at today's sales pace -- the fastest rate since January 2010. 

The real estate trade group's report contained other noteworthy statistics, too :

1. 34 percent of all sales were made to first-time buyers
2. 29 percent of all sales were made with cash
3. 28 percent of all sales were for foreclosed homes, or short sales

It also said that one-third of transactions "failed" as a result of homes not appraising for the purchase price; failure to achieve a mortgage approval; and, insurmountable home inspection issues.

This 33% failure rate is huge as compared to September 2011 (18%) and October 2010 (8%). It underscores the importance of getting pre-qualified to purchase, and of selecting a home "in good condition".

For today's Brooklyn, NY home buyer, October's Existing Home Sales may be a "buy signal". Supplies are falling and sales are increasing. Elementary economics says home prices should begin rising, if they haven't already.

Remember : The data we're seeing is already 30 days old. Today's market may be markedly improved already.

The good news is that mortgage rates remain low. Freddie Mac reports that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 4.000% with 0.7 discount points, making homes as affordable as they've been in history.

With rising home values, you may end up paying more to purchase your new home, but at least you'll pay less to finance it.

Maximum FHA Loan Limits Restored To $729,750

After a brief return to lower, pre-2009 levels, FHA loan limits have been restored. As signed into law last Friday, maximum FHA loan limits are -- once again -- as high as $729,750.

The move creates additional mortgage financing possibilities in more than 650 U.S. counties, and promises to increase the FHA's mortgage market share, which has grown from 6% in 2007 to roughly 30% today.

The change in FHA loan limits also marks the first time that FHA loan limits exceed those of conventional mortgage-backers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conventional loans remain capped at a maximum of $625,500.

For home buyers in Brooklyn, NY and nationwide, FHA-insured mortgage offer several advantages over comparable conventional loans, the most commonly cited of which is that FHA-insured loans require a down payment of just 3.5 percent.

FHA-insured mortgages carry other advantages, too, however.

First, FHA home loans are not subject to loan-level pricing adjustments (LLPA). This means that, all things equal, buyers and would-be refinancers with credit scores below 740; or, who live in multi-unit homes; or, who have high loan-to-values are not subject to additional loan fees as a conventional mortgage applicant might.

Second, after 6 months of on-time payments, FHA-backed homeowners are eligible for the FHA Streamline Refinance. The FHA Streamline Refinance is among the simplest loan products for which to qualify with no appraisal required. Even if you're "underwater" on your mortgage, you can still be streamline-eligible.

And, lastly, at least in today's market, FHA mortgage rates are below those of the conventional market.

The downside of FHA financing, however, is that all FHA mortgages require mortgage insurance and FHA mortgage rates are often higher versus a comparable conventional loan. This means that, although its mortgage rate may be lower, the payment for an FHA home loan may be higher as compared to a Fannie Mae mortgage with similar credit traits.

FHA loans aren't always optimal, but with higher FHA loan limits, expect the FHA's market share to increase.

Check your local FHA loan limit at the HUD website.

This Holiday Season, Think Twice Before Saving 15 Percent At The Register

With Halloween behind us, retailers are in the Holiday Spirit. Businesses know that consumers spent a median $556 on holiday gifts last year and they want this year to be just as strong.

That's why it's barely November and, already, Black Friday ads clog our mailboxes and the airwaves. Retailers want our dollars and they're offering great deals to early shoppers.

There's one discount a smart shopper should think twice, however -- the ever-present "Open A Charge Card Today And Save 15%" promotion. In the short-term, deals like this will save money. 

Over the long-term, however, opening a charge card could cost you much, much more -- especially if you plan to refinance your home or buy a new one.

Applying for a charge card can lower your credit score up to 85 points.  

According to the myFICO.com website, as a category, "New Credit" accounts for 10% of your 850 possible credit points, comprising the following credit traits :

• Your number of recently opened accounts
• Your number of recent credit inquiries
• Time elapsed since your recent credit inquiries
• Your proportion of new accounts to all accounts

Each trait is a negative in the FICO-scoring credit algorithm which means that, with each in-store charge card application, your credit score is likely to fall. How far your score will fall depends on the rest of your credit profile.

Meanwhile, low FICO scores correlate to higher loan fees.

Using a real-life example, assuming 20% equity in a home, for either purchase or refinance, look how loan fees for a $200,000 conforming mortgage change by FICO score :

• 740 FICO : There will be no added loan costs
• 720 FICO : You'll have a 0.250% increase in loan costs, or $500
• 700 FICO : You'll have a 0.750% increase in loan costs, or $1,500
• 680 FICO : You'll have a 1.500% increase in loan costs, or $3,000
• 660 FICO : You'll have a 2.500% increase in loan costs, or $5,000

You can see first-hand how expensive low credit score can be -- much more costly than the 15% saved at the mall. That's why people planning to refinance to today's low rates and soon-to-be Brooklyn, NY homeowners, shouldn't rush to save 15% at the register. 

For people in want of a mortgage, high FICO scores are worth protecting.

Tips For Maximizing Your Home's Appraised Value

A home appraisal is an independent opinion of your home's value, performed by a licensed home appraiser. Appraisals are part of the traditional home purchase process, and lenders require them for most refinances, too.

Appraisers are trained professionals. First, they derive a base for your home's value based on the recent sales prices of homes that are comparable to yours in terms of bedrooms, bathrooms, style, and square footage.

Then, accounting for features and amenities that make your home different, the appraiser applies "adjustments" to that base value.

This methodology is called the "Sales Comparison" approach and the result is your home's appraised value.

It's the most common appraisal method used by lenders.

As a homeowner in Brooklyn, NY , you can't affect the sales prices of your home's comparable properties, but you can help your appraiser understand how your home stands apart from these homes. This, in turn, can affect your home's adjustments, resulting in a higher appraised value.

With home appraisals, every valuation dollar can matter. With that in mind, here are a few tips for maximizing your home's appraised value :

1. Be home for your appraisal so you can answer the appraiser's question, if there are any.
2. Mention any new roofing, flooring, HVAC, plumbing, or windows you've installed since purchase.
3. Don't mention projects or repairs you're "about to undertake". Appraisers don't credit for unfinished projects.
4. Make minor household fixes prior to the appraisal (e.g.; leaky sink, running toilet, peeling paint). 
5. Present a tidy home. This can contribute to a higher "overall condition" adjustment.

Lastly, schedule the appraisal for a time that is convenient for your entire household. An appraiser needs to see, measure, and take photos of every room in your home. If a room's door is closed because of a resting child, for example, the appraiser may need to schedule a second appointment to complete the appraisal, and that can raise your appraisal costs.

Your Home Has A Smoke Detector. Are You Sure It's Really Working?

An estimated 356,000 in-home fires caused more than $7 billion in U.S. residential property damage in 2009, according to data from the United States Fire Administration.

The fires caused more than 12,000 injuries, and killed more than 2,500 people in Brooklyn, NY and nationwide.

Unfortunately, many of affected homes did have smoke detectors -- they just weren't working properly. This is why it's critically important to test your home's smoke detectors at least once annually.

When you test a smoke detector, you're making sure that the alarm will trigger in the event of a real-life fire. A proper test will confirm that the batteries have useful life, and that the device's smoke detection components are operating as expected.

To test your smoke detector, here's what to do :

1. Make a checklist of your home's smoke detectors
2. Go to the first smoke detector
3. Ask a helper to go to the farthest point from the detector within your home
4. Press the smoke detector's testing button up to 10 seconds to activate the alarm
5. Confirm with your helper that the alarm could be heard from his/her location
6. Note on the checklist whether the smoke detector worked, or needs replacement

You can also take your test a step further.

Just because the smoke detector's alarm can be heard from the farthest point in your house doesn't mean that the alarm will sound in the event of a real fire. Therefore, you may want to buy a "smoke test".

Smoke tests are aerosol cans that simulate a bona fide in-home fire. You can buy them for less than $15 at your local hardware store, or at Amazon.com. If your smoke detector fails to sound its alarm in the presence of a "real fire", make sure you replace it right away.

The Most Expensive ZIP Codes In The Country (2011 Edition)

In the housing market, amenities and location have as much to do with a home's value as the everyday forces of supply-and-demand. Whereas the latter causes home values to rise and fall over time, the former creates a starting point for said values. 

Where you live -- and the features of your home -- determine your home's price range. Naturally, homes in some areas are consistently higher-valued than homes in others.

Using data compiled by real estate market data firm Altos Research, Forbes Magazine presents America's 10 most expensive ZIP codes. California and the New York Metro area dominate the list.

1. Alpine, NJ (07620) : $4,550,000
2. Atherton, CA (94027) : $4,295,000
3. Sagaponack, NY (11962) : $3.595,000
4. Hillsborough, CA (94010) : $3,499,000
5. Beverly Hills, CA (90210) : $3,469,891
6. New York, NY (10012) : $3,392,574
7. New York, NY (10013) : $3,317,962
8. Water Mill, NY (11976) : $3,300,000
9. Montecito, CA (93108) : $3,099,348
10. Old Westbury, NY (11568) : $3,095,000

In fact, of the top 50 most expensive ZIP codes, only 6 are located outside of California and New York regions. 3 are Colorado resort towns -- Snowmass (81654), Aspen (81611) and Telluride (81435) -- one is in Maryland, one is in Florida, and the last is in Washington State.

Chicago-suburb Kenilworth (60043) is the top-ranked Midwest ZIP code. It placed 86th overall.

The Forbes list may be interesting but, to home buyers or sellers in Brooklyn, NY , it should not be the final word in home values. Real estate is a local market which means that -- even within a given ZIP code -- prices can vary based on street and neighborhood.

Look past general data and get specific. Talk to your real estate agent for local market pricing.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 2, 2011 Edition)

Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was nearly unanimous, with just one dissenting voter. There were 3 dissenters at each of the FOMC's last two meetings.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in September, there's new evidence that the economy "strengthened somewhat" in the third quarter.

One example cited is that consumer and business spending continues to rise while inflationary pressures on the economy remain modest. This indicates controlled growth -- a plus in a recovering economy.   

The economy remains slowed by a number of factors, though, as noted by the Fed :

1. "Continuing weakness" in the labor market
2. Softness in commercial real estate
3. A "depressed" housing market

In response to mixed economic conditions, the FOMC opted to "do nothing" today; it introduced no new monetary policy, and revised none of its existing market stimulus. The Fed re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent "at least until mid-2013″ and affirmed "Operation Twist" -- the program in which the Fed sells Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and uses the proceeds to buy mortgage bonds with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been negative this afternoon. Mortgage rates throughout New York are rising because analysts expected the Fed to launch new, bigger stimulus plans. It didn't. Rates may drift higher for the new few days, too.

Therefore, it today's mortgage rates fit your household budget, consider locking in a mortgage rate. Mortgage rates are very low right now, relative to history. It may not last.

The FOMC's next meeting -- its last scheduled meeting of the year -- is December 13, 2011.

More Risk To Home Affordability : Friday's Jobs Report

Within the next 48 hours, mortgage rates may get bouncy. The Federal Open Market Committee will adjourn from a 2-day meeting and October's Non-Farm Payrolls report is due for release.

Of the two market movers, it's the Non-Farm Payrolls report that may cause the most damage. Rate shoppers across New York would do well to pay attention.

Published monthly, the "jobs report" provides sector-by-sector employment data from the month prior. It's a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and includes the national Unemployment Rate.

In September, the economy added 103,000 jobs, and job creation from the two months prior was shown to be higher by 99,000 jobs higher than originally reported. This was a huge improvement over the initial August release which showed zero new jobs created.

When September's jobs report was released, mortgage rates spiked. This is because of the correlation between jobs and the U.S. economy. There are a lot of economic "positives" when the U.S. workforce is growing.

1. Consumer spending increases
2. Governments start more projects
3. Businesses make more investment

Each of these items leads to additional hiring, and the cycle continues.

Wall Street expects that 90,000 jobs were created in October 2011. If the actual number of jobs created exceeds this estimate, it will be considered a positive for the economy, and mortgage rates should climb as Wall Street dumps mortgage-backed bonds in favor of equities.

Conversely, if the number of new jobs falls short of 90,000, it will be considered a disappointment, and mortgage rates should rise.

There is a lot of risk in floating a mortgage rate today. The Federal Reserve could make a statement that drives rates higher, and Friday's job report could do the same. If you're under contract for a home or planning to refinance, eliminate your interest rate risk.

Lock your mortgage rate today.

Make Your Mortgage Rate Strategy : The Federal Reserve Starts A 2-Day Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled, 2-day meeting today, the seventh of its 8 scheduled meetings this year, and the eighth Fed meeting overall.

The FOMC is a 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve. It's the group responsible for setting the nation's monetary policy and is led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The FOMC's most well-known role is as the steward of the Fed Funds Rate. This is the overnight rate at which U.S. banks borrow money from each other. The Fed Funds Rate is a unique, "banking" interest rate, and should not be confused with consumer interest rates, a category which includes "mortgage rates".

Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve. 

Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds. If mortgage rates correlated to the FOMC's Fed Funds Rate, the chart at right would be linear.

That said, the FOMC does exert influence on mortgage markets.

After its FOMC meetings, the Federal Reserve issues a press release to the public. In it, the central banker summarizes economic conditions nationwide, highlighting threats to the economy and areas of strength.

When the Federal Reserve's statement is generally "positive", mortgage rates tend to rise. This is because a strengthening economy invites investors to assume more risk, spurring equity markets at the expense of all bonds types, including the mortgage-backed kind.

When bond markets lose, mortgage rates rise.

Conversely, when the Fed is generally negative, bond markets gain, pushing mortgage rates lower throughout New York.

The Fed can also influence mortgage rates via new policy.

At its last meeting, the FOMC launched a new, $400-billion round of mortgage-market stimulus known as Operation Twist. The added mortgage-bond support led mortgage rates lower post-FOMC meeting. 

The Fed may expand Operation Twist as soon as Wednesday afternoon. It may also take no such steps at all. Unfortunately, there are few clues about what the Federal Reserve may do next, if anything at all. As a result, mortgage rates will be a moving target for the next 36 hours. First, they'll be volatile before of the Fed's statement. Then, they'll be volatile after the Fed's statement.

Even if the Fed does nothing, mortgage rates will change so your safest play is to lock a mortgage rate ahead of Wednesday's 2:15 PM ET adjournment.

There too much risk in floating.